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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|