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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.